Trump's tariffs could push India closer to Russia and China, warns former US NSA John Bolton

In an interview with CNN, Bolton said, "Trump's tariffs against India are intended to hurt Russia but they could push India closer to Russia and to China to oppose these tariffs."

"Trump’s leniency on the Chinese, and heavy-handed tariffs on India, jeopardise decades of American efforts to bring India away from Russia and China," the former NSA added.

His remarks came as India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to tour China for the SCO Summit this month for the first time since the 2020 deadly Galwan clash.

Modi, who was Trump's "close friend" earlier, on Friday held a telephonic conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is likely to visit India later this year.

India's NSA Ajit Doval also toured Russia in recent times.

After Trump imposed a total of 50 percent tariff on India for buying oil from Russia, the South Asian country held its ground and called the move "unfair, unjustified and unreasonable".

In a statement, the Ministry of External Affairs said, "We have already made clear our position on these issues, including the fact that our imports are based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India. It is therefore extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest".

"We reiterate that these actions are unfair, unjustified and unreasonable. India will take all actions necessary to protect its national interests," the statement added in no uncertain terms.

India's  Prime Minister Narendra Modi clearly stated he won't compromise on the interests of the country's farmers, livestock rearers and fishermen.

Prime Minister Modi on Thursday said, "For us, the welfare of our farmers is the highest priority. India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, livestock rearers, and fisherfolk. I know I will have to pay a heavy personal price for this. But I am ready," Modi said.

"For the fisherfolk of my country, for the livestock rearers of my country — today, India is ready. We are continuously working towards increasing farmers’ income and creating new sources of livelihood," he added.

Trump's latest tax crusader takes total duties on import of Indian goods into the United States to 50 percent, 20 percent more than the tariff on China and 31 percent more than on Pakistan.

In an executive order signed, Trump wrote, "I find the Government of India is currently, directly or indirectly, importing Russian Federation oil... in my judgement I determine it necessary to impose an ad valorem duty on imports of articles from India..."

The 50 percent tariff hit comes hours after angry comments about India-US trade relations.

"India has not been a good trading partner... we settled on 25 percent... but I think I'm going to raise that substantially over the next 24 hours because they're buying Russian oil," he told a US broadcaster.

Photo: US President Donald Trump. The White House/X

That potential change has been underlined by Trump giving Pakistan a big rate cut on Islamabad's tariff to 19 percent and signing a new trade deal, including plans to develop Pak's oil reserves.

Trump announced on Wednesday that he would increase the tariffs imposed on Indian imports "very substantially" over the next 24 hours due to India's continued purchases of Russian oil.

"India has not been a good trading partner, because they do a lot of business with us, but we don't do business with them. So we settled on 25 percent but I think I'm going to raise that very substantially over the next 24 hours, because they're buying Russian oil," he told CNBC in a televised interview.

This comes a day after Trump threatened that he would "substantially" raise US tariffs on India over its purchase of Russian oil, stating that the South Asian country doesn't care for the lives lost in Ukraine.

"India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

"Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA," he said without specifying what tariff level he had in mind.

As a response to that, India had criticised the United States and European Union for singling out Indian refiners over their exports of crude.

Earlier, justifying its shift to Russia for crude, the government had said that while India's imports are "a necessity compelled by the global market situation", the nations criticising it are themselves "indulging in trade with Russia".

"In fact, India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict. The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability," it said.

"India’s imports are meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer. They are a necessity compelled by the global market situation. However, it is revealing that the very nations criticizing India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia. Unlike our case, such trade is not even a vital national compulsion," the statement said.

India had said the European Union in 2024 had a bilateral trade of Euro 67.5 billion in goods with Russia. In addition, it had trade in services estimated at Euro 17.2 billion in 2023.

"This is significantly more than India’s total trade with Russia that year or subsequently. European imports of LNG in 2024, in fact, reached a record 16.5mn tonnes, surpassing the last record of 15.21mn tonnes in 2022," the statement said.

India said Europe-Russia trade includes not just energy, but also fertilizers, mining products, chemicals, iron and steel and machinery and transport equipment.

"Where the United States is concerned, it continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilizers as well as chemicals," it said.

"In this background, the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security," the statement said.