RBI's statistical model predicts India's FY25 GDP growth at 6%

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India's statistical model predicts India's GDP growth for the next year (FY25) at 6.0%, which is 50 basis points lower than the central bank's official forecast of 6.5%.

IBNS • 20 Dec 2023, 11:06 pm

RBI's statistical model predicts India's FY25 GDP growth at 6%

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"As part of the suite of models for informing monetary policy formulation, the RBI has developed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model," the central bank's monthly State of the Economy article, released on December 20, said.

According to the model, the economy could grow by 7.1% in 2023-24, slightly higher than the RBI's forecast of 7.0%.

Deputy Governor Michael Patra mentioned in a press conference that high-frequency data for October and November were robust, suggesting a conservative estimate of 7% growth for 2023-24.

The latest 'nowcast' by RBI indicates a 6.7% GDP growth in the last quarter of 2023, while the DSGE model estimates it at 6.4%.

Official GDP data for October-December 2023 will be released by the statistics ministry on February 29, 2024.